![]() ![]() In her recent book, Thinking in Bets, Duke notes that outcome thinking compounds poor choices on two levels: It dissuades us from making sound future decisions while reinforcing bad decisions that turned out well thanks to a lucky break. The uproar surrounding the head coach’s decision is an example of what Duke calls “outcome thinking,” or the assumption that a decision that leads to a negative outcome is, by definition, a bad decision. Throughout the history of NFL record-keeping, the chances were 98% that the play would have resulted in either a touchdown or an incompletion, either of which would have benefited Seattle. NFL teams had thrown 66 touchdown passes from the one-yard line that year with zero interceptions. Statistically, though, Carroll’s call was sound and even brilliant, notes decision science expert and former world-class poker player Annie Duke. “ Pete Carroll botches the Super Bowl,” wrote ESPN. “ Worst play-call in Super Bowl history,” trumpeted the Washington Post. Sports pundits were merciless the next day. ![]()
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